Part A ✅

UBS explains Powell's dovish pivot

A hypothetical Substituting the Cleveland Fed new rent index (-9.3% YoY) for the BLS shelter inflation (+3.7% YoY) in the PCE estimate would slash PCE inflation from 2.6% to about 0.5% year-over-year, highlighting how lagging shelter data is keeping headline inflation above real-time rent trends.

As Jackson Hole approaches. Why do Wall Street and the Fed blatantly ignore “distributed lags”of policy of at least two years, pretending the economic impact of today’s Fed Funds Rate will be felt instantaneously. Truth, the FFR being felt today was locked in back in August 2023 at 5.33%. The rate cuts today won’t be felt until late summer 2027!! This stubborn blindness of distributed lags and anchoring off flawed BLS data, leads to a recurring cycle of severe policy mistakes, as if echoing past errors isn’t enough. Dismissing such well-documented lags and flawed data isn’t just careless, it reflects a fundamental failure in economic research and analysis that borders on professional malpractice.

Market sell off in preparation for Jackson Hole Friday. Markets are essentially pricing in hawkish tone. In the most basic form of verbiage - Markets think rate cuts are no longer a guarantee for September - Powell speaks Friday, if he hints at all at no rate cuts. Market is front running the move, thus the sell off. - If Powell comes in soft and leans that rate cuts are likely, we turbo rip. If there are no cuts for September however it’ll be an ugly 4-6 weeks until we have clarity for October potential cuts. Market HATES uncertainty and we are seeing that in the price action right now.

Brian Armstrong explains how he built Coinbase on nights and weekends while working at Airbnb Brian first advises those who are currently employed to not build your project on company hours or on your company laptop: “If you build it on company time or on the company hardware, the company probably owns the IP.” Then he describes his schedule for working on Coinbase while still working full-time at Airbnb. “I would often work [at Airbnb] until 7pm. I’d come home, eat dinner, and then I would work from 8pm to midnight. I would do that maybe 3-4 days a week on weekdays. And then on the weekend I’d work Sunday afternoon for 7-8 hours.” Brian did this consistently for about a year and a half until Coinbase was far enough along for him to get seed funding from Y Combinator. “It sucked. I mean I was tired after the full day of work [at Airbnb]. But this is where determination comes in… At that moment in time, I was in my late 20s, and I was like, ‘I really want to try to build something important in the world.’” When asked how he maintained friendships during this time, Brian replies: “I was pretty intense about it. I would say I sacrificed friendships for it. It’s not like I was just never responding to people, but I’ve seen this happen to various people. They get to a certain point in their life. Sometimes they turn a certain age where they thought they would have more done by then or maybe someone in their family passes away and they’re like, Oh my god, time is finite. It’s precious. And something happens where they’re like, ‘I’m going to get this done, no matter the cost.’” Brian tells those out there who might be in a similar situation: “Go hard at it. Finish your book. Launch your thing. Just start doing stuff - and even if you don’t know what to do, just do anything, because action will produce information and it’ll help you get to the right thing.” Video source: @StevenBartlett (2022)

Harvard Joins Bitcoin Craze, Paving Way for Endowment Funds: BBG

Everyone needs to hear this... The Story of the Two Wolves: A grandfather takes his grandson on a walk to share his wisdom for life. "A fight is going on inside me," he tells the boy. "It's a terrible fight between two wolves. One is bad, he is anger, fear, hate, jealousy, and envy. One is good, he is hope, kindness, joy, love, and optimism." The boy asks, "Which wolf will win?" To which the grandfather replies: "The one you feed." I can't stop thinking about this story. We all have the two wolves inside of us. If you choose to feed the Dark Wolf, you'll be filled with anger, fear, hate, jealousy, and envy. If you instead choose to feed the Light Wolf, you'll be filled with hope, kindness, joy, love, and optimism. Which wolf will you feed? The choice is yours. Choose wisely.

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