Get up, it’s gameday

I have a friend getting married in Charleston, SC this weekend and they have a fear that the outdoor venue might be cancelled due to rain. Hurricane Gabrielle has a chance to hit the coast and they are freaking out. If it happens, they will be stuck with a $10K bill for an outdoor tent, vendors and specific furniture that they won't get a refund for. To hedge against this, I told him to bet on the severity of Gabrielle becoming a "Category 3 Hurricane" potentially get some of the money back. He's going to make that bet, which has more liquidity, and will also create one specifically for "is it going to rain in Charleston, SC" on the day of his wedding. They could have paid event insurance for this, but at this point with days left for his wedding, it is rare someone who will underwrite this. It also most likely would cost more than it is worth. People don't know just how powerful prediction markets will be for people in tight situations like this.

Move to where the action is. Agglomeration effects are powerful.