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The terms of the bet: "I bet you $500 that on your daughter’s 16th birthday, it won’t be possible and legal for someone with no driver’s license to hop into a self-driving car in DC, give it an address in Philly, take a nap, and wake up at her destination 3-4 hours later."
10 hours ago
In 2010, I made a bet with Ryan Avent, then at the Economist, about the future of self-driving. He thought his then-infant daughter would never need a driver's license because AVs would be ready by 2026. I thought that was too optimistic. It's now 2026, and I won the bet.
@jfischoff @GarettJones I think Tesla is a couple of years behind Waymo but I'd give them >50% odds of having a large coverage area within the next decade. I expect one or two others (Zoox, Nuro, Wayve, May Mobility, Motional) will make it but don't have strong views about which ones.
@jfischoff @GarettJones I'd also put Aurora on that list.
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