In 2010, I made a bet with Ryan Avent, then at the Economist, about the future of self-driving. He thought his then-infant daughter would never need a driver's license because AVs would be ready by 2026. I thought that was too optimistic. It's now 2026, and I won the bet.

In the latest episode of the AI Summer podcast, I talked to Ryan about the bet and the lessons for today's AI technology. People who think we're on the verge of a fast takeoff and 10% economic growth sound a lot like people 16 years ago who thought driverless cars were imminent.

To be clear, AV technology was real and promising and it really is going to change the world. But from the perspective of 2010 it was going to be a 20-30 year project, not a 10-15 year project. I think something similar is true of LLM-based AI.

@notadampaul Also I don't think it's possible? You can do it with FSD, but you have to sit in the driver's seat and keep your eyes on the road or else the DMS will shut the car down long before you get to DC.

@notadampaul Anyway, I doubt that the terms of our bet will be satisfied before 2030. Still a pretty close call but not "by the skin of my teeth."

@FirasHermez But I agree that I won because of the geographical element.