The #euro is currently pricing in 2 (25bps) rate hikes until July 2026 and 2.8 rate hikes until the end of the year. I am sorry, but the people at the #ECB are too preoccupied with academic textbooks and not enough with economic reality. As I have said, the current surge in inflation, driven by spiking energy and freight costs from the escalating Iran conflict, is a classic supply-side shock, not overheating demand. This acts like a tax increase: higher input costs squeeze households' real disposable income, curb spending, and drag on growth. Secondary effects (e.g., wage pressures from rising food/energy living costs) may appear, but the root is external supply disruption, not excess domestic demand. The current episode doesn't justify rate hikes; if anything, the growth drag from reduced real incomes argues for easing to support demand and prevent a deeper slowdown. Not all inflation demands the same response. #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Economy #OilShock #Iran #IranWar #oil #Energy #LNG #Qatar #Energy