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Moody's leading economic model: The likelihood of the U.S. entering a "recession" has risen to 48.6%.
According to @Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. recession before the end of 2026 is 31%.
As of February data, Moody's indicator has increased by 15% over the past six months.
This is the highest level since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-2020.
The main cause of the recession is weak "labor market" data.
It is worth noting that the model has not yet accounted for the surge in oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Therefore, it is very likely that the next data release will exceed the critical threshold of 50%.
Based on the past eight records, whenever this indicator exceeds 50%, it inevitably leads to a recession.
Future data releases can be continuously monitored by @economics_ma Chief Economist @Markzandi.
Mar 18, 03:32
The odds of the US entering recession are rising:
The probability of a recession over the next 12 months jumped to 48.6% in February, the highest since the 2020 pandemic.
The percentage has risen +15 points over the last 6 months.
This is based on the leading economic indicator invented by Moody’s, which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model.
The recent surge was primarily driven by the deteriorating job market, with nearly all economic data softening since the end of 2025.
Historically, such a high probability has never occurred outside of recessions.
Now with oil prices surging in March, the indicator is expected to breach the key 50% threshold, as every recession since WWII, except the pandemic, was preceded by a spike in oil prices.
The longer oil prices remain elevated, the higher the chance of an economic downturn.
@Polymarket predicts the market's probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession before the end of 2026
increased from 22% on March 3 to 31%
Prediction market link:
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