The odds of the US entering recession are rising: The probability of a recession over the next 12 months jumped to 48.6% in February, the highest since the 2020 pandemic. The percentage has risen +15 points over the last 6 months. This is based on the leading economic indicator invented by Moody’s, which uses extensive economic data and a machine learning model. The recent surge was primarily driven by the deteriorating job market, with nearly all economic data softening since the end of 2025. Historically, such a high probability has never occurred outside of recessions. Now with oil prices surging in March, the indicator is expected to breach the key 50% threshold, as every recession since WWII, except the pandemic, was preceded by a spike in oil prices. The longer oil prices remain elevated, the higher the chance of an economic downturn.