Fourth quarter GDP revised down to a 0.7% annual rate (originally 1.4%). Broad story still consumption reasonably strong, investment mixed and huge volatility in net exports. And shutdown subtracted ~1pp from growth, something that will be added back in Q1.

The better signal is real final sales to private domestic purchasers. This is the growth of consumption plus fixed investment. It was up 1.9% (revised down from 2.4% in the advance estimate). The main difference from GDP is excluding shutdown-affected government.

Consumption.

The big negative was government. The government spent money only a bit below normal in Q4 but got much less for it because of the shutdown. This is recorded as a price increase.

Finally the big picture: We're way ahead of where CBO expected to be prior to COVID.