While everyone was cheering chainsaws at CPAC, a tax economist put $342,195.63 — his entire life savings — into a prediction market bet that DOGE wouldn’t cut federal spending. His edge? He knew how the US government works better than the DOGE believers. His wife read the Kalshi comments from the people on the other side and grew *more* confident because “they didn’t seem to understand what they were buying.” He made $128K. Turns out knowing how the federal budget actually works was a better edge than a chainsaw.

@nickgiva1 Maybe the story is also more entertaining if you brushed up against the elaborately condescending fiscal tourists a year ago who told you that you didn’t understand, this time the spending really would be cut.