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I think Bitcoin, at the moment, suffers from a lack of a "Schelling point catalyst"
A single potential catalyst, that if it were to happen, would clearly move price higher. And thus that everyone watches and discusses.
In 2023, it was if there will be a Bitcoin ETF.
H1 2024, it was how big inflows into the Bitcoin ETF could get.
H2 2024 was the presidential election, and potential end of hostile regulatory environment toward crypto.
H1 2025 was the possibility of a strategic bitcoin reserve. And then H1 into H2, the incredible rise of Bitcoin treasury companies.
Now, in H1 2026, if you ask 5 different people — whats the single most important catalyst to Bitcoin's price moving much higher in the next year... you'd likely get different answers, including non-specific trends like "institutional adoption."
I think in general, it's a part of maturation, that one-single, uncertain catalyst doesn't move the whole market.
But, it also creates a vacuum for attention.
I think this is a subtle but important part of the weak sentiment of the moment.
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