“It is technically possible to reactivate Venezuelan oil production, but we are talking about a 15-year timeframe for crude oil supply to return to 3 million barrels per day (bpd) if the new investment cycle begins now. We are talking about a stable investment of US$10 billion per year until 2040 to reach 2 million bpd at the beginning of the next decade and 3 million bpd by 2040. A large part of this investment would be solely dedicated to repairing existing pipelines and port infrastructure at the start of the cycle. And more than US$30 billion of external capital would need to be injected at the beginning of the cycle to generate the initial momentum. Oil prices above $70 or $80 might be needed in the 2030s to reach 3 million barrels per day. At lower prices, a range between 2 and 2.5 million bpd is a more realistic ceiling. In conclusion, recovery is possible, but it requires patience, massive capital, and sustained high prices—not an easy victory.”