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Quick economic thought experiment:
What actually happens if large numbers of people stop paying tax?
Does the government suddenly run out of money?
Or does it borrow more…or print more?
What does more borrowing do to 10-year bond yields?
And when bond yields rise, what happens to mortgage rates?
Now add another layer:
If people keep the tax they didn’t pay, and spend it, what happens to demand?
More money chasing the same goods…is that deflation, or inflation?
So who gets hit twice?
Higher prices from increased spending,
and higher mortgage rates from rising bond yields?
Who feels that pain first, governments, or households?
Now ask a different question:
Which parts of the system cannot function if cash flow stops?
What happens to banks, credit markets, and property values if mortgages and rents aren’t paid?...

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