New post: AI CapEx Now Hinges on Deus ex machina With talk of 100 GW or 250 GW of energy buildout, a really big plot twist would be needed to make the math pencil out. Nothing short of AGI will be enough to justify the investments now being proposed for the coming decade.

This is surprising, since AI luminaries have been walking back their AGI timelines. If anything, overinvestment in compute may reduce the probability of reaching AGI over a longer time horizon (ten to twenty years).

There are a few reasons for this, but the biggest is that PhD programs are being starved for talent, and it's very hard to make true low probability, divergent research bets. But this type of divergent search is required for scientific progress.

Deus ex machina (“god from the machine”) refers to a plot device where an unsolvable problem is suddenly resolved by an unexpected intervention...

In the context of AGI, Deus ex machina now has a double meaning: the literal creation of a new godlike intelligence, but also the only path forward to resolve an increasingly tricky ROI problem.