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Julian was co-first author on AlphaGo, AlphaZero, and MuZero. He doesn't have a major twitter presence, but he's been at the forefront of AI exponential progress for more than a decade.
Sep 28, 2025
As a researcher at a frontier lab I’m often surprised by how unaware of current AI progress public discussions are.
I wrote a post to summarize studies of recent progress, and what we should expect in the next 1-2 years:
I agree AI discourse today feels like covid discourse in Feb/Mar 2020. I think the trajectory is clear even if it points to a Black Swan event in human history.
But I think we should be cautious interpreting the METR/GDPval plots. Both only measure self-contained one-shot tasks.
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