Prediction markets might be the most underrated intelligence system right now. In the past, to understand macro trends, you had to scroll through news, read analyses, and filter out human noise yourself, which was quite exhausting. Now it's different. Before checking the news, I first take a glance at Polymarket. I see where the money is being bet. Those who dare to stake 1 million USD definitely think deeper than the average person. This is a consensus backed by real money, filtering out at least half of the noise. It's quite good to use it as a sentiment thermometer. Polymarket may not always be accurate, but it's definitely genuine.

The S-level narrative of 2026 | Is RWA inevitable? The "real demand" for RWA is not about "putting stocks/government bonds on the chain" itself, but about reducing the costs of asset settlement, collateral, distribution, and combination to nearly zero. Like "turning paper stocks into electronic bookkeeping," the essence is faster settlement, higher collateral efficiency, programmable combinations, and global distribution. These are objective efficiency dividends, so the direction is almost irreversible. However, the implementation will be a hybrid form: the chain is just a new "settlement layer," and the value may still be taken away by licenses and distribution channels. After all, the traditional finance pie involves too many people's interests.

If the market has already priced in, the real volatility may occur due to the divergence in the wording of the press conference being dovish or hawkish, as well as the future path, rather than the rate hike itself. The BOJ is expected to raise the policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, close to a 30-year high. Is there still hope for the crypto world?