Rumor has it that @callieabost is joining @BloombergTV at 12:50pm to talk all things markets & economy LIVE! Don't miss it!!!📺📺🔥🔥

Leave Vix Options to The Pros @awealthofcs @callieabost ⏯️

New Kids on the Block "Be careful, eager IPO investors. The new kid can run afoul of the head cheerleader or say the wrong thing to the hunky quarterback. Commit a social mistake so cringe that they have to transfer again." by @callieabost

🪩 NEW OPTIMISTICALLIE 🪩 It may be a below-average year for public debuts, but IPOs are getting their best reception since the turn of the century, surging nearly 35% on their first day of trading Why do we love the new kids on the block so much?

Shares of IPO this year have surged an average of 35% in their first day of trading, making 2025 the most successful year for public debuts since at least 2000 I'll tell you all about it TOMORROW. Subscribe here:

🚪 THE FED CRACKS THE DOOR🚪 ...and the stock market busts on through. Today, Fed chair Jay Powell said the shifting balance of inflation and employment risks could warrant a change in policy, which is an interest-rate nerd's somewhat subtle way of blessing lower rates in the future. Investors heard him loud and clear, though. Stocks exploded higher on the comment, with rate-sensitive small caps and sectors leading the charge. Rate cuts equal lower rates, what's not to like?!? This assumption can get complicated, though. For one, rate cuts don't always lead to lower *long-term rates*, like those pesky mortgage rates that have been annoyingly high. The Fed has direct control over ultra-short rates (we’re talking overnight rates), and its fingerprints are often strongest on the shorter end of the curve. However, the Fed’s influence on rates fades as fixed-income maturities increase. Since 1970, the 10-year yield’s reaction to rate cuts has been a coin flip (down 51% in the month after, up 49%). In the 1980s — the era of stubbornly high inflation — you often saw long-term rates rebel against Fed cuts. That might be the outcome here, especially since Powell himself admitted that inflation could move higher in the months ahead (thank you, tariffs). Also, is this the rate cut we want? I'm not so sure. If the Fed cuts rates while admitting inflation is a problem, you have to think they're getting desperate with job market problems. The best rate cuts for the stock market have come when the Fed has successfully avoided a recession. I love higher stock prices. I love beaten-down parts of the stock market leading the charge. I can't overlook the important nuances here. Rate cuts aren't always the antidote you want them to be.

S&P down five straight days. Powell speaking in a few. The vibes are strange ✨

Live on YouTube and X at 1pm ET with @awealthofcs, @duncanhillphoto and @RitholtzWealth Chief Market Strategist @callieabost! They'll discuss asset allocation advice, navigating a financialized economy, what if we don’t get a recession in the foreseeable future, and more!🔥🎙️ ⏯️ Sponsored by: @public

MY LATEST FOR @BusinessInsider: We've heard a lot about the lack of hiring and a slow rise in unemployed people I'm watching an under-the-radar, equally worrying metric: the labor supply, which has sputtered like it normally does around recessions

I can't stand the rhetoric around rate cuts and stock prices. The Fed does NOT care about stock prices. Maybe a teeny tiny bit, but not as much as prices and employment. Since 1970, about 20% of the S&P 500’s record highs have occurred within a month of a rate cut