contrary to popular belief the "top signals" we saw in january had basically nothing to do with the market topping - fed was hawkish - back then, the markets actually began believing the narrative that the govt was going to pay down debt and halt spending (so you had hawkish fed AND tight fiscal policy) - not only that, but the deepseek moment added to some fears of was the ai spending bubble over (and clearly that was also a fakeout) - then had a ton of uncertainty around tariffs and implications for tightening of global trade tops are much more systemic than they are "vibes" and most cases for cycle top i see rn rely on vibes and "top signals"