Market outlook for risk assets into year end and beyond 1. Government Shutdown: cautious stance until resolved. 2. Shutdown over: bullish, estimated to be resolved sometime between end of next week and Thanksgiving. Expect BTC +5% or more within 48 hours of deal. 3. FOMC Dec/10: hawkish, as most Fed officials favor a pause as of now, which is not priced in at the moment. Note however that officials may change their stance on rates as economic data comes in and the month progresses. 4. New Fed Chair nomination: estimated to be announced before the next FOMC, to influence the FOMC decision (it could also be soon after); bullish to very bullish. 5. Tax loss selling (crypto only): bearish; all December, mainly last two weeks (of particular importance given relative stocks-crypto performance). 6. Supreme Court's decision on Tariffs: most likely sometime in December, otherwise January, timing fluid; as of now betting markets favor a ruling against Trump, which would be extremely bullish IMO, although some argue such a ruling would be bearish. 7. 2026: very bullish first half of the year, driven by accomodative fiscal and monetary policies.