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Michael Kao
GS/J. Aron➡Canyon Partners➡Akanthos Capital➡Kao Family Office🏦Globetrotter✈ Headbanger🤘Star Wars Fan🌌 Mixologist🍸Diver🤿 | NO INVESTMENT ADVICE
Musings of the Day, 8/4/25:
Correct (referring to comment at bottom).
Without the US Consumer as the Safety Valve, RoW will have no choice but to Tariff China.
31.7.2025
Here’s the problem with the Runaway Tariff Inflation thesis.
Services are already in DEFLATION.
Retailers have absorbed 70% of Tariff increases thus far, for good reason — fear of Demand Destruction.
What little Goods Inflation results WILL result in Demand Destruction, which means that the endless stream of goods from China’s Runaway Assembly Line get dumped in the EU and RoW.
The inevitable result is that the EU and RoW are forced to erect their own Tariff barriers to China.
It would not surprise me if the resultant GLUT of Chinese goods might have to clear at even lower prices NET of Tariffs, stacking Goods Deflation on top of Services Deflation.
Where’s the ultimate safety valve for China?
CNY/CNH DEVALUATION.
17,28K
Musings of the Day, 8/3/25:
“Salami Slicing” is Geopolitcal jargon for two techniques that China has historically dominated at the expense of the US and its Allies.
It is a central tenet of China’s Unrestricted Warfare that I have written at length about:
1. Achieving a larger Geostrategic objective through a series of small, incremental actions that individually may not provoke a strong response but cumulatively result in a significant shift in power dynamics.
2. Chipping away at adversary alliance structures by exploiting Gray Zones in international law or response doctrines, thereby creating conflicts and rifts among allies.
If you want to understand the Trump 2.0 Playbook, you need to stop evaluating its Trade Policies from a traditional Multilateral Treaty standpoint that is particularly vulnerable to Salami Slicing by China and start understanding that it’s time to Fight Fire With Fire (had to throw in a Metallica reference). 🔥 🤘
Stop and take the time to read my new piece:
23,52K
Musings of the Day, 8/2/25:
Look at this chart, and stop and think for a moment about JPOW’s policy choices and when they were made, and you know why I dub him:
The Anti-Gretzky of Fed Chairs,
Master of Skating to Where the Puck WAS
1.8. klo 20.46
Musings of the Day, 8/1/25:
Agree with @FedGuy12.
Bold Bowman correctly called out Pusillanimous Powell, and she is correctly calling out Parsimonious Powell now.
JPOW = Master of Skating to Where the Puck WAS
11,22K
Michael Kao kirjasi uudelleen
One of the few who understands the Great Rebalancing...
I'm a little harsher on grading but overall we directionally agree. Biggest high level difference is that I am less optimistic growth is going to do much for Debt/GDP levels. We need more chainsaw to get our way out of this - esp as social security and healthcare costs start to ramp up. BUT not bad at all for a couple hundred days!
20,45K
Musings of the Day, 7/30/25:
“Talking the talk but not walking the walk” has literally been one of the cornerstones of China’s Unrestricted Warfare on the US and its Allies over the last 25 years.
They have counted correctly on useful idiots on both sides of the Atlantic to get frog-boiled into an untenable situation.
Thank god we have an Energy Secretary @SecretaryWright that understands that we need ALL forms of energy (and the difference between gas and gasoline!).
30,96K
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