Every smart person I know has reached out to say if I think the Fed will do anything about inflation, they have a bridge to sell me. They are probably right It’s funny Trump is so explicitly trying to push the Fed more dovish given the starting point is already insanely dovish

Watched a Rom Emanuel interview & he positions himself as a Dem thought leader Argued Trans Rights and immigration are losing ideas & all Americans care about is inflation. Progress! He then goes on to defend teachers unions and subsidizing demand more for Education + housing

Proof AI will not take our jobs Society getting dumber to protect itself from computers It’s like an immune response

And now that there is no uncertainty on trade (the full TACO achieved) there once again is finally risk No risk priced in means risk is actually going up Will show up most likely after earnings. But the return opportunity is diminishing notably

And now that there is not uncertainty, the market can finally top out Earnings this week and next will be good. Trade war is over. Every bear wrong on fundamentals and the risks from trade Once again the only risk is inflation and whether or not the Fed cares. AGAIN the risk

Trump basically forced Japan into a $550bn one time bribe to get the tariff rate down Really not that different from a mafia movie at this point Pay for protection. An offer you can’t refuse type thing. Great for our relationship with Japan

Is there more evidence of embedded inflation expectations than Congress threatening to end the Federal Reserve? You can’t let inflation out of the box: no one ever wants to put it back in 70s redux every day

Trump’s polling reaching disaster levels I still can’t believe he went full Biden / Yellen on the economy. People clearly hate it And Epstein is a big issue — a symbol of a double standard for elites and makes Trump’s crypto grifting look even worse

Trump’s polling reaching disaster levels Fox still backing Trump but wonder if that could pivot some into midterms bc Trumpism is a losing idea now. Epstein fuel on fire of people upset about economy and immigration I still can’t believe he went full Biden / Yellen. Insanity

Bessent: “tariffs are not inflationary: they are a one time price adjustment. I have no idea what the federal reserve is even looking at or talking about”