The S&P stock index is on track to close the week at another record high, once again demonstrating how strong corporate sentiment can override persistent macroeconomic uncertainty #economy #markets #stocks

From media reporting of President Trump’s visit with Chair Powell to the Federal Reserve’s building renovation. #economy #markets #FederalReserve

FYI, here's the link to yesterday's conversation with Erin Burnett. @CNN #economy #markets #federalreserve @ErinBurnett

President Trump, Tariffs, and the Federal Reserve There's been no notable market reaction to President Trump's declaration that the minimum tariff rate will now be 20%, up from 10%. Furthermore, pointing to the challenges of bilateral negotiations with so many countries, the President indicated a tariff range of 20-50%. Meanwhile, the President is scheduled to visit the now-famous $2.5 billion building renovation project at the Federal Reserve. This visit comes as Gallup reports public confidence in Fed Chair Jerome Powell at just 37% – only one percentage point above his inflation-impacted low of 2023, and which followed the second-largest fall in job approval among key officials in 2022-23. #economy #markets #federalreserve @Gallup

While media attention is rightly focused on the Japan-U.S. trade deal, don't overlook what is happening to the long end of the Japanese bond market where, driven mainly by fiscal concerns, yields continue to climb. With what is a correlated, rather than coordinated, fiscal expansion in the three largest advanced economies -- the US, Germany, and Japan -- global bond markets have a lot of issuance to digest in the period ahead. #economy #markets #debt #deficits #bonds #germany #Japan

Exchanging ideas on global development issues at the ABCE — the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics. Huge thanks to Indermit Gill and Rachel Glennerster for inviting me to participate. #ancde2025 @WorldBank

While most financial assets have recovered sharply from the early April jitters, the dollar continues to struggle, as reflected in its DXY index (see below). Moreover, it’s not easy to pinpoint what might reverse this trend any time soon. #economy #markets #dollar

This morning, US government criticism of both Federal Reserve Chair Powell and the institution itself has broadened to include "mission creep" and the effectiveness of other officials. The developments of the last few days reinforce my view: If Chair Powell's objective is to safeguard the Fed's operational autonomy (which I deem vital), then he should resign. I recognize this isn't the consensus view, which favors him staying until the end of his tenure in May. Nor is it a first best, which is simply not attainable. Yet, it's better than what is playing out now – growing and broadening threats to Fed independence – and will undoubtedly increase should he remain in office. As to market reaction, most of the frequently mentioned candidates to replace Chair Powell would be able to calm any potential market jitters. #economy #federalreserve #markets

Last week, the UK's delicate economic situation was underscored by challenging employment and inflation data. This morning, the fiscal picture deepened those concerns: Government borrowing for June reached £20.7 billion. Driven by increasing debt service payments, this represents an almost £7 billion increase from last year and marks the second-highest June borrowing on record, surpassed only by 2020. The combination of higher unemployment, persistent inflation, and a widening deficit underscores the policy challenge facing the UK as it embarks on the multi-month process of budget formulation. Yet, prolonged deliberation and uncertainty surrounding the budget's contents risk exacerbating current economic headwinds, potentially leading to even more subdued growth. #economy #UK #markets

Some of the charts from the Financial Times’ article marking six months in office for President Trump’s second term. #economy #markets @FT