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Route 2 FI

Trading on news & the latest narratives | Writing about what's on my mind

On CT, you see it every day. People measure their wealth by how much money they have at a certain age. Or by how many crypto cycles they've been through. But is it the best way to measure it? Typically, you see two kinds of people: the steady saver & the guy who risks big every time with huge portfolio swings as a consequence. I have a friend, a TradFi guy, who is obsessed with the Sharpe ratio, let's call him TradFi Sam. When comparing two assets, the one with a higher Sharpe ratio appears to provide better return for the same risk, which is usually attractive to investors. The Sharpe ratio assumes returns are normally distributed, but for crypto, returns are often highly skewed (big upside or downside) + have fat tails (extreme events are more common). The Sharpe ratio doesn't fit for crypto because it misinterprets volatility, assumes normal markets (lol), and relies on unreliable inputs in highly speculative, non-linear markets. But let's say we have two people: TradFi Sam is 28 and has $500,000 saved up. He loves the Sharpe ratio, and wants as little volatility as possible. Degen Alex, on the other hand is really comfortable with risk, is 31, and only has $80,000 in the bank. At first glance, TradFi Sam might look more successful. But when you look closer, their stories are very different. Sam got to $500,000 by working hard, getting regular raises, and saving carefully every month in his TradFi job. Sam’s savings grew slowly and steadily, going up a bit each year, no big surprises. Degen Alex’s story is full of ups and downs. At 27, Alex made $200,000 from a side business selling t-shirts on the web. At 28, he lost most of it on SafeMoon. At 29, he got lucky with $WIF and made some of it back. Some years, Degen Alex made a lot. Other years, he barely scraped by. Alex kept taking risks, rolling the dice to see what might happen. Because of this, it’s hard to say where Degen Alex’s future will lead. Maybe next year he’ll make it big in trading and make a million. Or maybe he’ll lose more money, then bounce back later. Anything is possible. TradFi Sam, on the other hand, will probably just keep saving and growing his money slowly. The point is: if you want to get really rich, playing it safe won’t get you there fast. Taking risks can bring big rewards, but also big losses. It’s scary and unpredictable, and you can’t just compare yourself to what others have at your age. Some days will feel exciting and give you hope. Other days will make you doubt yourself. The key is to keep believing in what you’re doing. Don’t let “average” numbers or what other people have stop you from trying something bold. For example, you might read that most people your age should have a certain amount saved, but if you’re always worried about falling behind, you might never make a move that changes your life. That risky move could have been your big break. Or maybe it sets you back for a while, but not forever. Playing it safe might help you reach small goals, but it could keep you away from reaching your biggest dreams. In the end, there’s nothing wrong with TradFi Sam’s steady path. Some people are happy with a safe, quiet life and sleeping well at night. But if you dream big and want something more, forget the comparisons. Forget the timelines. Just keep trying, be kind to yourself, and don’t give up. The journey is what matters most. We are in a hypergamble era, and if you are young, you have plenty of time, and are not afraid of huge portfolio swings, then what do you really have to lose by taking huge calculated +EV bets consistently?

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