I believe that the actual conflict in Iran (aka who's winning/losing) would be irrelevant for the markets if Iran didn't have the SoH under their control. If Trump were able to control the Strait, it would provide some relief to oil prices, but the infrastructure destruction likely still carries a premium forward. The Strait is the most important aspect to the market. Who's winning the war is less relevant. Control the Strait, and you will cure some of the negative market reactions. As long as the Strait is in limbo, it's hard to see how oil prices decline materially enough for markets to care.