1/ No rescue, only selectivity. The Fed held. Markets wanted comfort. They got a reminder: no rescue is coming. Inflation is still too hot. Duration, high beta, and weak narratives are still struggling.

2/ PPI came in hot again. +0.7% m/m vs +0.3% expected. Core +0.5%. Rate cuts kept getting discussed like they’re imminent. The data keeps saying otherwise.

3/ The next crack likely comes from corporate/private credit. Smoothed marks hide risk until they don’t. If private credit tightens before inflation breaks, AI/data-center capex can slow too. That’s a very different macro problem than “Fed cuts and saves risk.”

4/ What breaks first if private credit tightens before inflation cools: AI capex or the Fed’s patience?