Markets just celebrated like the Iran war is over. Oil crashed 15% in minutes after Trump posted about "productive conversations" and a five-day pause on strikes. Bitcoin reclaimed $70,000. But here's the problem: Iran says no talks are happening. State media called it a "retreat." The foreign ministry says there's been "no direct or indirect contact" with Washington. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Brent is still up 55% since the war started. The IEA just warned of the worst energy crisis in decades. A five-day pause on strikes that hadn't happened yet is not de-escalation. It's a press release.