The market is pricing in "interest rate hike risks," but it is still far from the point where "the rate hike cycle has already begun." All risk assets are in a pullback, and the core issue is not sentiment, but rather macroeconomic changes. Oil prices remain high in the long term, and inflation expectations are rising again, which is the most damaging logic in the current market. More critically— the market is starting to reprice the possibility of "rate hikes," rather than rate cuts. Current interest rate expectations: Probability of a 25bp hike in April: 12.4% Cumulative probability of a 25bp hike in June: 21.9% Maintaining the current rate is still the mainstream view (about 76.5%) This indicates one thing: rate hikes are not the main storyline, but have shifted from "0 expectations" to "a risk that needs to be priced in." Once the market starts pricing in rate hikes, it will directly suppress valuations (especially for Nasdaq, tech stocks, AI concept stocks + Crypto). Another overlooked point: the new Federal Reserve Chair will not take office until after June, and even if there is a change, it does not mean an immediate shift towards rate cuts. Monetary policy has never been decided by one person, but is a consensus developed under the long-term systematic operation of the entire Federal Reserve.