Oil prices are no longer the biggest threat to markets. It has become increasingly clear that bond markets will dictate just how long President Trump can continue increase pressure in the Iran War. The 10Y Note Yield is now up ~45 basis points since the war began on February 28th. This is in-line with the rapid surge seen around "Liberation Day" in April 2025. As the 10Y Note Yield surged above 4.50% in April 2025, President Trump began floating a potential tariff "pause." And, once the 10Y Yield broke above 4.60%, President Trump officially implemented a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariffs on April 9th, 2025. With the 10Y Note Yield now up to 4.40%, we believe the 4.50% to 4.60% range will be the "line in the sand" again. The US economy cannot handle a 5% 10Y Note Yield.