KHARG ISLAND — a thread: Trump has talked about taking Iran's Kharg Island for 40 years. The problem? Capturing it won't shut down Iran’s entire oil export system. And thus it won't lead to Hormuz re-opening fast enough. 🧵1/10 @Opinion FREE-TO-READ:

Contrary to common wisdom, Kharg — about half the size of Manhattan and roughly 25 kilometers (15.5 miles) from the Iranian mainland — isn’t the only spigot for the Islamic Republic’s vast petroleum industry. Tehran has other — admitedly, much smaller — oil terminals. 🧵2/10

Normally, Kharg accounts for ~90% of Iran's crude exports, benefing from its proximity to the country’s giant onshore oilfields, deep-water berths, huge storage capacity and the ability to load tankers fast. Today, several oil tankers are loading in Kharg 🛰️📷⬇️. 🧵3/10

But in an emergency Iran could use a combination of other oil terminals: Jask (crucially, bypassing Hormuz), Lavan Island, Sirri Island and Qeshm. All of them are small (even very small), but they would keep a trickle of barrels flowing. (See map at top of the thread) 🧵4/10

Iran also exports other oil stuff known as NGLs, a prized feedstock in the petrochemical industry. And it sells important refined products such as fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and naphtha. All from three other terminals: Assaluyeh, Bandar Mahshahr, and Abadan. 🧵5/10

To truly choke Iran’s petrodollar lifeline, Trump wouldn’t just have to capture Kharg; he’d need to take other terminals, and do so simultaneously. Anything else would leave Iran able to still sell some oil. History shows us it can weather long periods of low exports. 🧵6/10

Crucially Iran entered the war from a position of resource strength, with total oil liquids output at a 46-year high of nearly 5 million barrels a day. This translated into booming overseas sales. 🧵7/10

With oil output up, its crude exports rose last month to an eight-year high of 2.2 million barrels a day. Plus it exported another million barrels a day of other oil liquids and refined products. To force Tehran's hand, Trump would have to cut those flows massively. 🧵8/ 10

But Iran has weathered long periods of ultra-low oil exports. Back in 2020-22, Iran endured American "maximum pressure" on its petroleum industry, with exports at times down 90% from today's levels. And Iran didn't buckle then. Thus, it's unlikely to do so now. 🧵9/10

Unlike the Islamic Republic, Trump doesn’t have the benefit of time. He needs to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in days or, at most, weeks or oil prices would rally. He doesn’t have months to crank up the pressure on Iran via Kharg to accept a deal. Time favours Tehran. 🧵10/10