This is a mess. The goalposts around what “Operation Epic Fury” is going to accomplish are moving constantly to accommodate whoever is in front of the cameras. Trump claiming that we didn’t expect Iran to retaliate doesn’t hold up. Iran warned the UN weeks earlier, and experts flagged the risk before the strikes. You can debate whether the decision to go to war was right or wrong. But the idea that Iran’s response—or threats like closing the Strait of Hormuz—came out of nowhere just isn’t supported by the evidence. And now we’re paying for our hubris.