Just got done with my daily steps-maxxing... Found myself ruminating on three main things re: markets over the next 6 months: 1) Does the Israel-Iran thing continue? and become an ongoing issue like Russia-Ukraine did? Or does it just quickly recede and be forgotten like so many other similar events over last few years? 2) Does Warsh actually come in and slash interest rates dramatically in May? This is what Trump says Warsh is supposed to do, and the anticipation has been building up for almost a year now... But who knows man... DC and the Trump admin are both such a mess that one can really see all sorts of things happening at this point... And then... 3) Does polling for the mid-terms get increasingly worse for the GOP? And does this spook markets? My supposition has always been that rates move markets uber alles- and if Warsh does slash rates that almost guarantees a bull market for risk assets... Since it will 'un-freeze' the $38T in US home equity... and every 50 year old 'Cardano dad' will suddenly have an 80k HELOC or 200k cash-out refi to throw into the markets... ...