Under appropriations act of 2016 (which ended 40 year ban on US oil exports), president can impose a one year crude oil ban if nat’l emergency exists, OR president deems it in the nat’l interest, OR Secretaries of Energy & Commerce find exports are causing severe consequences.

Needless to say, all three conditions could easily be triggered at this moment in time. But a ban doesn’t solve all issues! Sure, a ban reduces pain at the pump for US consumers, but our crude oil allows for unnumbered products to be made and shipped abroad to be sold back here.

The last ban did indirectly harm US GDP by a small amount (estimates I’ve seen are in neighborhood of $10-15 billion), but that was from a position of stasis; other countries weren’t able to buy US cure for decades.

The way that we have ambled step by step deeper into this conflict has eerie echoes of the July Crisis of 1914, where Europe’s leaders sleepwalked into the greatest war that continent had seen to that point. It feels like we’re sleepwalking into a massive energy shock, at best.