Iran produces 4-5% of the world's total oil supply, making it the 3rd largest producer in OPEC. The best case for this conflict just took a leg lower. At best, this ends in the next 1-2 months and the Strait reopens but it came at the cost of structurally removing 4-5% of the world's oil supply. Worst case, the Strait does not reopen for much longer than that and much more of the world's oil supply is severely hampered. 1. Eliminating Iran's oil production was likely a later stage resort from the US as it is not ideal to create a more lasting supply shortage and price spike (would have preferred a smoother regime change akin to Venezuela but this was always impossible). 2. These attacks on oil infrastructure were likely inevitable in order to choke off Iran's primary revenue source, however far from ideal. It signals the US believes they need to go for the jugular as their only way to win this war, but it comes at a cost of removing a large portion of global oil supply and causing structural price increases. 3. This is escalation of the war and while there may be hopes on the US side that it forces them to the table, it is more likely to harden their defensiveness, increase desperation and violence. This means attacks on neighboring countries, energy infrastructure and civilian targets.