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Every Israeli general and political leader has spent their career seeing the Iranian regime as an existential threat to their existence - and for good reason. They want this war to go on for a few more months so they finish the job of destroying the regime. Trump also wants this regime to fall or we wouldn’t have started this war. They miscalculated and didn’t plan well enough around Hormuz. From here the calculation is straight forward. If they can keep price of oil $85 or below the war will go on because markets won’t care. If they can’t Trump will end it and we will replay this scenario in 3-5 years.
This is the first purely technological war the world has ever witnessed at scale. Its pretty damn scary when you think about it —
Given where we are, at this point I hope Trump goes the distance and breaks the regime so something positive comes out of this.
Just musing
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