The formula for alpha in venture is intellect/prestige, but the paradox here is that founding a VC-backed startup has itself become prestigious, and accordingly, the alpha has degraded 2005 SamA dropping out of Stanford to do YC: not prestigious 2010 Neil Blumenthal leaving Wharton to sling glasses online: not prestigious 2012 Brian Armstrong doing crypto: not prestigious 2017 Palmer building a defense contractor: not prestigious All very smart people choosing not to do the most socially rewarding thing at the time The best early founders in 2026 are not building in AI, defense, or any other hot, “prestigious” category