The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4.2%. The 30-year mortgage rate just jumped to its highest level since November. Both are climbing while everyone expects the Fed to cut rates. The bond market is telling you something the Fed doesn't want to hear: it doesn't believe inflation is under control. Add the Iran escalation and you get more inflation risk, more war risk, and more upward pressure on yields. For anyone trying to buy a home, the math keeps getting uglier. Every basis point higher on the 30-year rate prices out another wave of buyers. And the Fed's rate-cut talk isn't doing anything to stop it. When the bond market and the Fed disagree, bet on the bond market.

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