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In 1987, the first land auction in Shenzhen marked the birth of the commodity housing market, serving as a starting point.
In 1998, the state stopped welfare housing distribution, establishing houses as commodity housing, leading to price increases.
In 2003, land bidding was introduced, tightening land supply and increasing land prices. (Real estate was defined as a pillar of the national economy.)
Subsequently, 2005 (the "Eight National Regulations" control), 2009 (the 4 trillion stimulus), and 2015 (de-stocking) were three instances of super price surges.
Until 2022: negative population growth, slowing urbanization, and oversupply began to lead to a correction.
During this period, prices surged for over 20 years before starting to correct.
The big bullish trend has completely nurtured the current obsession of our middle-class pillars with housing.
1: 2021 was the peak year for our population—1.413 billion, after which it decreases by about 4 million each year.
2: By 2025, the number of mortgage holders in our country will be 480 million, with most loans taken out between 2009 and 2020.
In other words, without the possibility of getting rich overnight, these hundreds of millions of people will still be repaying their loans to the bank for 15 to 25 years because of housing.
No matter how I calculate it, I can't figure it out. Without relying on my parents and solely depending on my salary, I can buy a house in a third or fourth-tier city.
My conclusion after looking into it is: ordinary people should not buy houses.
There’s even another conclusion: to meet basic housing needs, if you weren't born into a good situation, the only way is through the dividends of the times and industry trends.
The previous trend was housing, which the older generation could see and even benefit from.
However, that’s not the case moving forward.
Most of these dividends and industry trends will happen unconsciously; although they can be enjoyed at China's speed, most ordinary people will not have access to them.
Moutai is a product of the older generation, and alongside real estate, it should have gradually returned to its true value by 2021.
In the future, there will be only so many things to invest in, even if they are clear, the details will be debated by everyone.
I remember before and after the Olympics in Beijing, I bought an iPhone 1, and at that time, I didn't understand Apple’s stock.
But there must have been someone who bought Apple stock and analyzed it back then.
I remember when Tesla first appeared, some people bought it, and some analyzed it; I did not.
Now the question is: we all know we should invest in the dividends of the times and industry trends, the trend is here, yet we can't find certainty.
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