The recent U.S. military raid on Iran's Kharg Island, Iran's announcement of a permanent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's refusal to engage in ceasefire negotiations are three major events. The core impact is a crisis in energy supply security, alongside a surge in global risk aversion and inflation expectations, affecting various assets: 1. Impact on U.S. stocks Overall market pressure and extreme sector differentiation: • Market level: Geopolitical risks are driving up U.S. stock volatility (VIX), with funds flowing out of risk assets into safe-haven categories; rising oil prices will delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, and rising U.S. Treasury yields will suppress overall valuations, leading to significant short-term adjustment pressure. • Sector differentiation: ◦ Benefiting sectors: Energy (oil and gas extraction, oil services), defense and military, utilities/essential consumption, oil transportation companies, which directly benefit from rising oil prices and safe-haven demand. ◦ Pressured sectors: Overvalued growth stocks (tech stocks) are suppressed by rising U.S. Treasury yields; transportation/consumer discretionary, midstream and downstream manufacturing/chemicals face dual pressures from rising costs and weakening demand. 2. Impact on traditional financial assets 1. Gold and silver (CFD) Core beneficiary assets, with high volatility and upward movement in the short term: • Gold: Driven by geopolitical risk aversion and anti-inflation, funds are pouring in; historically, the probability of rising in the first week after Middle Eastern conflicts exceeds 60%. If supply disruptions worsen, it will lead to a breakthrough rise. • Silver: Follows gold upward but is pressured by economic recession expectations due to its industrial properties, resulting in greater volatility and weaker elasticity than gold. • Risks: If the conflict eases, the safe-haven premium will quickly dissipate, but as long as inflation and uncertainty persist, the bottom support remains solid. 2. Oil ETFs (USO/UKO) The most direct and elastic bullish targets: • Expectations of the blockade of Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz will create an irreversible gap in global crude oil supply, completely reversing the supply-demand pattern. ...