TREASURY YIELDS ARE AN IMPORTANT SIGNAL RIGHT NOW. The key is watching oil prices and US Treasury yields together. Right now, both are moving higher. When oil rises and yields rise at the same time, it usually means markets are more worried about inflation. But there’s another scenario to watch closely. If oil keeps rising while Treasury yields start falling, that could signal a panic tipping point. Why? Because falling yields during an oil spike suggests markets are no longer focused on inflation. They’re worried about economic growth or even a recession. In that situation, investors typically rush into safe assets like US Treasuries, pushing yields down. That shift could be bad news for risk assets.