Remember that just yesterday, Tehran was reportedly floating a completely different condition: cargo paid in yuan. Today, it’s “any country except the U.S. and Israel can pass.” That is not a reopening. It is evidence the rules are being improvised in real time. And two days ago, on March 12, Iran tried to pose as reasonable by saying ships must coordinate with its navy to transit. Reuters also reported other selective assurances for passage, including a vessel changing its signaling to “China-owner” to get through. We’ve seen this before. During the Red Sea crisis in 2024, the Houthis offered similarly selective assurances in Bab el-Mandeb. In practice, it was confusing, chaotic, and did little to restore the normal flow of ships. Reuters reported that many vessels caught up in those attacks had no Israeli connection, and UNCTAD said Suez Canal transits fell 42% from peak levels. Shipping does not normalize because of slogans. It normalizes when passage is clear, verifiable, insurable, and durable. Right now, it is none of those things. So this is not Iran loosening its grip on the Strait of Hormuz. It’s PR spin designed to sound reasonable. Until owners, crews, charterers, and insurers can move without ad hoc political tests or special permission, the Strait remains squeezed.

This is the Rubymar. It sank in March 2024 in the Bab el-Mandeb after the Houthis said they were targeting only U.S., U.K., and Israeli-linked ships. * Belize flag * Marshall Islands owner, with a UK address on its papers * Lebanese management * Unclear insurance * Saudi commercial link * Bound for Bulgaria with fertilizer cargo This is the problem with the “test” Iran is now proposing: what exactly is a U.S., Israeli, or allied ship? Do they mean: * the country whose flag it flies? * the country of ownership? * the country of management? * the country of insurance? * the country of commercial links? * the origin or destination of the cargo? Once you run down that list, a huge share of global shipping has some U.S., U.K., or Israeli lineage somewhere in the chain. Russian, Iranian, and Chinese shipping may pass that test more easily. But those ships were already moving this week anyway. So, what has really changed here? Not the risk. Just the branding.