1/2
Claims jumped
But this was the week before Labor Day. This data can be "screwy" around holidays.
See June 6th at 250k. The week after Memorial Day. That peaked did not hold.
It's too early to say that the recent rise in claims into Labor Day is a sign of a weakness.
1/6
Recessions and financial crises can have a profound and lasting impact on an economy for years to come.
We had both in 2020. This changed the economy.
Change does not mean worse or dystopian. It means different. This economy differs from 2019 (pre-COVID).
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It's just not credible for the Fed to claim to have a 2% inflation target when it's been 53 months above target and moving higher & they shift to further easing.
1/8
In this post about rising inflation, some replies suggest that housing prices are falling, which will help hold down inflation.
The problem is that most metrics are saying home prices are booming to all-time highs. This is why we have an "affordability" crisis.
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Truflation has been arguing that inflation is a non-problem and calling for the Fed to cut rates (below). But their latest readings are flashing a yellow to red flag on inflation.
August 4th is labeled. It was 1.65%. Today it is 2.31%, a considerable increase of 0.66% in less than a month. And, as the red line shows, it is at its highest level since February, BEFORE Liberation Day.
Finally, the Red Arrows note that on the first day of the month, Truflation revises this index DOWN sharply. This is why I don't look at the level of the index, but rather at the rate of change. It has been dramatically higher this entire month, reaching a 7-month high and overcoming the significant downward revision on August 1st.
Will Truflation now change its call for the Fed to cut because inflation is not a problem? Or will they post another massive downward revision tomorrow (Sept 1st), without an explanation, and continue to call for cuts?