One thing I can't stop thinking about lately is reflexivity. In particular, the reflexivity that has seemingly been baked into market psychology pertaining to Trump's ability to "control the market." The reflexivity comes from: 1. Trump's (over) confidence in "talking markets" to where he wants them to go. [I say over-confidence because it worked during Tariffs, where he has unilateral control] 2. The market's (over) confidence in Trump's ability to continue to do this. As an example of how entrenched this is, @KobeissiLetter routinely shares its "Trump Negotiation Playbook" to its 1.5 million followers as if it's a "scientific method" at this point. But what happens if reflexivity works in the other direction? What happens if markets realize that unilateral tariff adjustments are not the same thing as managing global oil supply during what increasingly looks like WWIII? Reflexivity works in both directions.