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Let's talk about @Backpack:
Recently, bp has also concluded a year-long points season, and everyone can more intuitively see the real trading demand. The trading volume has decreased by about 70%, OI has dropped by 10%, and TVL has basically remained unchanged. From this perspective, users still trust bp and are willing to continue keeping their funds in the exchange. The decline in trading volume is expected, as transaction fees are not cheap, and without the expectation of points, natural demand has decreased.
Now, let's discuss valuation:
Polymarket has opened a market cap of 100m--300m, which is below many people's expectations, including my own. Rationally, we can see that bp's TVL is at 360 million. From the hype aster lighter perspective, the FDV should be far higher than the protocol's TVL itself, so I don't believe bp's FDV will be below 300m. A reasonable price should stabilize above 500m.
The current low expectations are understandable; during the points season, Armani raised everyone's expectations too high, but the delivered results were insufficient (regional compliance, stock tokenization trading, treasury, prediction market). The stock tokenization I am optimistic about has not yet launched. We all know this is the second growth curve of hypeliquid, and it will also be the second growth curve for all exchanges. If Armani can implement this, I believe a reasonable market cap will be between 800 million to 1.2 billion, and considering this is a long and wet snow slope, if developed well, the ceiling is limitless.


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