The core CPI in the United States has recorded its lowest level in five years. The 12-month inflation rate is 2.46%, and the 6-month annual rate is 2.3%—just looking at the numbers makes you want to shout "inflation is over." However, behind that, there is an inconvenient number of **3.0% annualized over the last 3 months** that is hidden.

Organizing the complex current state of inflation, as indicated by the lowest levels in 5 years and a "3-month rebound" simultaneously. ✅【Core CPI Key Figures (February)】 ・Monthly Increase: +0.22% (as expected) ・12-Month Rate: 2.46% (lowest level in 5 years) ・6-Month Annual Rate: 2.3% (also the lowest level in 5 years) ✅【Concerns: Acceleration in the Last 3 Months】 ・3-Month Annual Rate: 3.0% (highest level since September 2024) ・Sticky items like housing costs are contributing factors ・The phase is testing whether the "trend of slowing inflation" is genuine.

👉 The figures for 6 months and 12 months clearly indicate disinflation, but the recent 3.0% over the last 3 months could serve as a basis for the Fed to maintain its stance of "not rushing to cut rates." Even in an environment where the market is easily swayed by expectations of rate cuts, the Fed cannot ignore the rebound in short-term data. The next points of interest are the employment statistics and PPI—these will help determine whether inflation is experiencing a "re-acceleration" or if it is just "noise." Unless the stickiness of housing costs is resolved, it should be noted that a full return to the 2% target will take time.