OIL PHYSICAL SUPPLY CRISIS brent and wti trading at parity - why brent is the better option and you should switch: trump could enact an export ban on US oil. in fact the us had an export ban from 1975-2015 heres some facts: - wti has to be picked up in oklahoma while brent is the international benchmark price. - wti is landlocked and carries no geopol risk like a gulf disruption so it usually doesnt pump as much if supply loss happen - since lift of us export ban, wti traded consistently at 3-8 discount vs brent, you could arb it if spread went too high - typical gulf crisis: brent rises more than wti because above factors - this time: starts typical but then spread collapses from 10% to 0% in just 4 days - oil infra under attack, strait blocked, storages in gulf run full and gcc states halt production - market run on any crude available including us wti - us wti prices to parity as buyers are willing to pay any price - oklahoma stockpile dries up - physical supply crisis now why brent? because brent PROFITS from an export ban -> global buyers cant get us oil, so more demand on less supply -> brent skyrockers wti would LOSE from an export ban because the price insensitive buyers would be banned and less demand for more supply -> wti pulls back so if you can now trade it 1:1, you can either short wti long brent (spread can only go up from here) or just buy brent as you get an additional moon potential option i think export ban is coming