STRIKES ON IRAN COULD PUSH CHINA BACK TO US OIL If Iranian oil supplies are disrupted, China could face a shortfall of up to 1 million barrels per day. To cover the gap, it may boost imports from Russia and resume buying US crude—halted since May 2025 due to trade tensions. Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for over 20% of global seaborne oil, could drive prices higher. That would squeeze margins for major refiners like Sinopec and smaller independent plants.