Google DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis thinks there is a 50% of AGI by 2030. Three ways to test for it: 1. Back test to see if it can create novel insights (eg. give the model all human knowledge up to 1900 and see if it could produce Einstein’s theory of relativity). 2. Ensure general human-level intelligence across every domain (not “jagged intelligence”). 3. Let top experts in 100s of field (eg. Terrence Tao in math) stress test for a month and decide if it reaches bar in specific domain. *** Full episode here: