some 2nd order predictions from this: - the rich gulf states will almost certainly start incentivizing defense startups. they have trillion dollar investment arms. - specifically, since they are tiny nations, they need autonomous weapons. they can't field large land armies. - but anthropic/openai doesn't allow for autonomous weapon military use, so it is likely the gcc start using chinese AI models - but that is obviously unfavorable for america, so then they'll have to either i) make a frontier lab play ball, ii) start their own effort via help from palantir/anduril - it seems inevitable to me that this conflict directly accelerates the militarization of AI, which in turn implies gigantic state-sponsored spending into the AI supply-chain - however, there's a growing populist movement in the west around being anti AI/datacenters due to potential job loss for the middle class - I think the above tension continues to accelerate until the next USA election. and that election will decide the fate of the West