80-page TGE guide just dropped from @ArrakisFinance , analyzing 125 token launches from 2025. Arrakis wrote the autopsy - cause of death: TGE was the product. Key receipts: ▫️ Social media engagement correlated 0.038 with price performance. Basically zero. ▫️ Up to 80% of airdrop recipients fully exited on day one ▫️ 85% ended the year negative (median -69%) ▫️ Only 9.4% of tokens that dropped in Week 1 ever recovered ▫️ 50,000 Discord members and 200K followers are "spectators and farmers, not buyers" - their words They frame every TGE decision as a sell-pressure decision. Because when TGE = the product, the entire exercise is managing the exit liquidity you just created. Nothing personal, just incentives. Source: 🫡