The US labor market needs far fewer jobs to prevent unemployment from rising: The breakeven rate of household employment growth is down to just ~50,000 per month. This is the number of jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate stable. This marks a -75% to -80% decline from ~200,000-250,000 in 2023. The shift has been driven by sharply falling immigration, meaning fewer new workers are entering the labor force each month, reducing the number of jobs the economy needs to create. Meanwhile, in mid-2025, household employment growth was already near or below zero, yet unemployment remained relatively stable. The US job market is undergoing one of its most significant structural shifts in decades.