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** Here we go with another weekend storm threat **
Multiple models are signaling the potential for significant snow in the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday, including the D.C. area, while some models show just lighter snow or rain.
As of today (Tuesday), confidence in accumulating snow for our region on Sunday is too low to change any plans. That may or may not change by this time tomorrow.
Because the air mass in place ahead of the storm won't be that cold, several ingredients would need to come together for a snowstorm here. The storm's low-pressure center would have to track by to our south and then intensify, in just the right spot near the coast, enough to generate its own cold air in two ways:
1) By pulling colder air into our region from the north
2) By producing heavy enough precipitation to chill the atmosphere near ground level close to freezing.
That is exactly what the snowier models are suggesting will happen. In this situation, though, it's not uncommon for models to simulate a strong storm several days out but then eventually back off to a weaker storm.
It's worth noting that the latest run of the European model -- often, but not always, the most accurate -- shows a fairly weak storm that would have trouble producing accumulating snow in the D.C. area.
On the other hand, it is definitely too soon to dismiss those models that are showing a stronger storm capable of giving us a significant snowfall.
When we have increasing confidence one way or the other, you will be the first to know!

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